D3.6: Study on ID Documents

Title: COST PROJECTION ELEMENTS (OF ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLEXITY)

Cost Projection Elements (of Environmental Complexity)

As previously discussed, the elements that conform to an environmental economic complexity can not be easily accounted for; they are intimately related to increased uncertainty and are also prone to increased speculation about future economic conditions. These will typically include economic aspects other than immediate cost-projections that could refer to the reaction of other markets and countries. Starting however with the contingent and contextual aspects at a national level we can distinguish several issues:

a) The Economics from the Threat to Privacy: With the proposed changes of eID schemes and the underlying technological infrastructure that can support it, citizens are becoming increasingly aware of the threats to Privacy (Arndt 2005). The idea behind a disproportional exercise of power from the government is at the very core of emergent problematic phenomena as far as privacy is concerned, and furthermore acts as a trigger towards expressing resistance to change and reaction to excessive control (Foucault 1977). With implementations of eID schemes, it is often – and not mistakenly – perceived that the balance between those that have the potential of exercising the control (and power) over those on whom control is being exercised is considerably displaced and the possibility remains strengthened that people are constantly being categorised, profiled and monitored while their personal data becomes jeopardised like never before. Coupled with activities from civil liberties groups, resistance to change might be reinforced and produce several effects. If we treat the imposition of eID schemes to the population of a nation (or a number of nations through EU Directives) as a purely political decision then it becomes evident that Civil Liberties and Privacy Groups that oppose such initiatives are engaging into contrary political acts. Depending on the degree of penetration in influencing public opinion, subsequent reactions from the social stratum can swiftly transform into economic reactions. There simply is no way of knowing the changing degree of penetration and/or the sensitivity to privacy whereas the penultimate risks in getting such eID schemes wrong manifest themselves into two distinct directions:

a1) Lack of public confidence in the scheme creates mistrust to the level where the eID is constantly being undermined and misused (security implications also arise)

a2) The scheme might actually inhibit economic activity if increased vigilance and sensitivity to privacy concerns makes people reluctant as users and might at the same time force them to seek alternative ways of either verifying their identity or bypassing the system itself. Such a risk is particularly relevant to cases where an eID scheme is related to other industry sectors that are themselves heavily reliant on identity verification (with the financial services being the most likely candidate)

b) Information Exchange, New Markets and Labour: The issue of interoperability as analysed at different levels (see previous section) creates and reinforces the need for information exchange and for generating information out of information. Depending on the level of interoperability reached across a wide variety of eID schemes, different services could utilise aspects of such schemes and create opportunities for businesses on the basis of schemes that are controlled and/or significantly operated by governments. The creation of new markets is something that should also be considered in terms of the long-term economic effects of such large-scale technological implementations. Potential uses of the eID scheme (or aspects of it) could open up opportunities into markets that might benefit from incorporating or basing future implementations on the eID scheme, or even create totally new markets based on needs that will eventually emerge and cannot be a priori determined. Politicians however that use this as a core argument for the proposals (namely that even in problematic scenarios new opportunities and markets emerge) usually forget that a balance must also be struck with the already existing infrastructure. Changes, new opportunities and markets will have to be based on the evolution of pre-existing schemas and in the cases where this process is severely disrupted then one cannot easily foresee the extent of the consequences. Labour will also be based upon such a distinction and balance of new opportunities but that is also something that has to be properly coordinated and governments must actively pursuit and encourage new directions for the workforce and assist in new opportunities, be those in research, development or business.